Author Archives: dude

What Happens in a Simultaneous Supply and Demand Shock?

The COVID-19 pandemic has created a unique situation on the world economy Manufacturing all over has shutdown. Global supply chains have virtually collapsed. The pandemic has smashed the world capacity to produce. But the virus has also forced entire nations to institute lockdowns and stay at home orders that prevents people from buying stuff. Other[…]

What Will Come First Gold $2000 or $1400?

The markets are surging, gold is trying to break through resistance and COVID-19 is threatening our way of life. Perhaps that order should be reversed. Who ever would have thought that we would experience a V recovery? We can’t claim that yet, however the stock market is a forward looking system, and the collective consciousness[…]

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Return Original Investment Calculation – The Roy Calc

If you want to build tour wealth, you need to take profits. The hard part to figure, is just that…where do I take profits? Unless you take profits, you ain’t gonna get rich. So, since we hope that our speculative plays turn into long-term investments, and most of them will return multiples on the original[…]

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It’s a Miracle?

Dr. Robert Redfield, the Director of the Centers for Disease Control (CDC) said, …the numbers are going to be much, much, much lower than would have been predicted by the models. This statement last night just hours after the Trump virus team were predicting horrific numbers of dead from complications from the CCP CoronaVirus, from[…]

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AA Investing Methology

The resource sector, which includes energy and commodities, is a volatile place. The average standard deviation of the energy sector over the years is north of 20 percent, and commodities isn’t far behind at nearly 19 percent. This is far and above other sectors. And this year that level of volatility will totally eclipse the[…]

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The Big Idea – Portfolio Framework

This service is about investing and speculating in natural resources. However we do this in the context of the ideal portfolio. And that portfolio is based on a recession-proof model made popular by Artemis Capital and Chris Cole, it’s called the Dragon Portfolio. He published a paper called The Allegory of the Hawk and Serpent[…]

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April 2020 The Great Dividing Line

It is official, the Economic situation we have as of April 2020 will be the defining moment in history. This point in time will represent the “Great Diving Line.” We will from here on in refer to before Coronavirus 2020 and post Coronavirus 2020. The world as we know it has fundamentally changed in virtually[…]

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The Practice of Sit and Wait Investing

Most traders and investors think they must be constantly in pursuit of alpha, they are the pursuit predator, more trades mean more profit. They are willing to take lesser odds so long as they can make incremental profits., Take small risks, with mediocre strategies, and make small profits, and just keep that going like a[…]

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